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March 10th, 2000

The Web in 2010

Here is my incredibly bold prediction for what the web will be in ten years.

1. First off, something will come along and change the HTTP protocol. I’ve used the "mmtp://" moniker in future-based productions, so let’s go with that. MMTP meaning, of course, "multimedia transfer protocol."
2. The domain name system as we know it will no longer exist. All United States domains will have ".us" as a suffix – you know, like the rest of the world.
3. HTML will no longer exist. We’ll be using a language that takes the best elements of HTML and Flash, and merges them.
4. Web browsers will not be exclusive to the PC (duh!) They’ll be in our phones, televisions, stereos… everything. They’ll become ubiquitous.
5. Of course, those browsers will be written by someone other than Microsoft. It sure as hell won’t be Netscape, though. (Opera?)
6. High speed access will dominate, but still not be available everywhere.
7. Overall, the medium will advance to the point of interactive television, but better.

I won’t make predictions about The Daily Ping, but you can bet there’ll be at least one entry in 2010 from me about that great 90s show, Seinfeld. -pm

Posted in Technology

FROM: Marcus Mackey
DATE: Saturday March 11, 2000 -- 11:25:07AM
I think that a lot of what you wrote is right on the edge... some of it could happen, some of it most certainly will not though. I mean, 10 years down the road, anything is possible, but when it's taken this long to get a browser that can moderately handle dhtml (and most still vomit on the handling of it), what's the likelihood of things changing so radically?

I like the idea of a shift from http to mmtp (albeit, the HTML one kinda' has me curious... as I think that vector based imaging in an HTML-like syntax would probably be... well... slower than a flash plugin... or, how about if Macromedia just open-sourced the plugin?!? Then Microsoft, OmniWeb, iCab, Netscape [or what's left of them], and Opera can just embed the plugins into their browsers?!?) but, I still am curious as to how many browsers is this directly supported "NOW". With as long as it's taking Opera to reach all of the ubiquitous OS's (it's still in development for MacOS and BeOS... and been so for an eon it seems), I'd find it hard for MMTP to be on their plate right now, as well as a rewrite of all of the browsers to support another language to replace HTML. True, HTML is an age-old standard... but I also feel that it is a standard that just keeps and continually builds upon itself (more quickly than a Microsoft OS upgrade, which isn't saying a lot I know). The industry is full of people like you and me... early adopters, but... in a world right now where we have to make web pages to 640 x 480 resolutions (the avg. 17" PC monitor w/new PC's is already way past this)... I don't think any new protocol will change things much by 2010... maybe 2020 and even that's a bit iffy.

I do feel that PC's will upgrade themselves at alarming rates in the future (especially if IBM's new technology that I read about on a rumor's site proves true)... and possibly that the network terminals will change a lot of how we use computers, however... I think many people are going to resist the "techno computer in my toaster" syndrome. Why? Could it be that the dizzying array of intertwined networked activity just doesn't seem homey (besides, I don't want Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, or Linus Torvalds not lettin' go of my Eggo's)? Could it also be that with added electronicism, we have added backlash of it? I think so... and to me, the amount of people that have PC's does not denote how quickly they want to interconnect them with the rest of their house. I'm one of the few I know with a 10/100 base-T Ethernet network in my home... and even I don't have the aforementioned toaster hook-up figured out.

Oh, believe me... interconnection and "The Computer is the Network" (Sun Microsystems slogan) are both promising and incredible technologies now and even moreso in the future, however... we need to make sure these technologies "JUST WORK" before they're released or they'll end up like an Apple Newton. A great idea that even though it was the best handheld (albeit bulky) in it's final incarnation, it got beat by the Palm which forces a convention upon you, rather than accurately deciphering your handwriting like the last Newton's did.

Marcus Mackey

FROM: Paul
DATE: Saturday March 11, 2000 -- 1:40:07PM
Good points, Marcus.

The biggest thing I'd say about the networked home is that I think it'll happen rather quietly. I really don't think I could equate it to the v-chip, for instance; rather, it'll be a process wherein the technology gets cheaper, and companies put it in anyway. (Better comparison: b&w TVs are hard to find nowadays, aren't they?)

It'll be a gradual shift, to be sure, but there'll be a point where all of the appliances in a house are PNP (for example), and you can hook them all up and control them via the home's main terminal. I personally don't give a flip if my microwave can access recipes over the web (it's not THAT awful an idea, imho) but the idea of everything hooked up and relying on one machine... that I don't like too much.

DATE: Saturday January 1, 2005 -- 2:14:35 pm

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